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Voting has commenced for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.