How Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles With Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a history of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to move the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the White House was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that pledge, saying that ending the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.